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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still